AnalysisAfter a Russian coup attempt, what happens next in Ukraine? China may hold the answer
So where to now for the war in Ukraine?
After the dramatic upheavals in Russia in recent weeks, what are the next likely steps and who is best placed to bring this war to an end?
With Russia in a state of internal instability and Ukraine's counter-offensive not achieving what Kyiv hoped it would, much focus is now on what happens next.
The most disturbing aspect of this war is that Vladimir Putin, the man who began and sustains this war, has an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads under his command — more than any other country. (The Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation says that of those, 1,588 are believed to be actively deployed.)
After the recent challenge to his authority, Putin now sits anxiously in the Kremlin, or one of his many underground "secure sites", while he oversees a purge against those who be believes humiliated him in the recent show of defiance by the Wagner group. His current targets are senior military officers he believes were complicit.
Nobody can predict with certainty the outcome to the Russia-Ukraine war, but what it is possible to do is to look at all the various pressures at play and then use those to try to assess the most likely direction from here.
China's role is clear
Beijing is almost certain to emerge as the key player over the next year.
In my assessment, China is the most likely to broker an end to this war. The US cannot deliver Russia to a negotiating table, so therefore, is unlikely to be the mediator.
Beijing has shown its hand in a phone call on April 26 by Xi Jinping to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Although it gets virtually no media attention, right now Beijing has an envoy, Li Hui, who is spending hours talking to Kyiv and Moscow to try to establish any common ground. Li is a former ambassador to Moscow so would have good contacts in the Kremlin.
This is all part of Xi's clear determination to become involved in various international conflicts, once seen as the domain of the US.
This year alone it has offered this envoy to Ukraine and Russia, brokered a truce between Iran and Saudi Arabia and, recently, shown an interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by hosting a meeting in Beijing of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.
Putin's challenger
The big picture — the war between Russia and Ukraine — is difficult to predict.
But within that big picture are many swirling agendas and factors.
The latest drama — the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters — highlights that.
Who would have thought that the monster, Prigozhin, would have risen up and turned on its Frankenstein maker, Putin? What is happening inside Russia at the moment is like a fight between different sections of the Mafia.
Putin the Godfather is being challenged.
The three key figures in this latest crisis, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Yevgeny Prigozhin, cannot know how that latest crisis will end — let alone the war itself.
The Trump factor
Both Putin and Zelenskyy see as their major deadline next year's US elections.
From my visits to Ukraine and from talking to Russia experts, one thing is certain: Zelenskyy is extremely fearful that Donald Trump will return to the White House next year while Putin is extremely hopeful that he will.
Trump recently told CNN that if re-elected he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Rather than give them comfort, that statement struck fear into Ukrainians.
On what terms? With what pressure? That each side keeps what it currently has? In other words, that Ukraine concedes the 20 per cent of its territory that Russia has taken?
This would be devastating for Ukrainians and they simply would not accept it — it would mean Ukraine was at military war with Russia and at political war with the US, currently its biggest backer.
It would find it difficult to fight both those battles simultaneously.
Zelenskyy and his leadership team believe that a re-elected Trump would quickly pull US funding from NATO's support for Ukraine.
Trump has often spoken of his desire to pull Washington out of foreign wars, and as time goes on the American public, like many people, will grow tired of supporting the Ukraine war effort, particularly if the US goes into recession, as many expect.
Given that there is in effect a deadlock on the battlefield with some minor gains by Ukraine, that would give Russia the ability to consolidate the 20 per cent of Ukraine that it currently has taken and perhaps take even more.
The expectation of both sides is that Trump would do this while at the same time demanding both Putin and Zelenskyy negotiate a ceasefire.
This is Ukraine's worst nightmare — going into a Trump-brokered negotiation from a weak position, with one-fifth of its territory under occupation. The negotiation would then almost certainly become how much of its own territory Ukraine agreed that Russia could retain.
This is why every Ukrainian I spoke to about a possible negotiation reacted very badly. After so many of their citizens have been killed, raped and imprisoned by Russian soldiers, Ukrainians would be outraged by the idea of giving Russia any of their land. It would be seen as a reward for brutality.
It's unlikely that any Ukrainian leader — including one as popular as Zelenskyy — could survive signing off on an agreement like that.
Ukrainian leadership is doubtful that Trump could be an objective mediator, pointing to his many public comments in defence of Putin.
If they had to choose, they would rather a peace process mediated by Xi than Trump. They know that Xi has the ability to pressure Moscow into concessions that neither Trump nor any other US politician can offer.
Loading...A counter-offensive with a deadline
Ukraine's keenness for China to help bring an end to this war was demonstrated by how Zelenskyy instantly accepted Xi's offer of an envoy in that April 26 phone call.
With the deadline of the US election in November next year in mind, Ukraine is placing all its hopes on its counter-offensive which is slowly getting into gear.
A view frequently expressed to me by Ukrainian military and intelligence officials is that they need demonstrable military successes against Russia to be able to sit in a position of strength at any negotiations.
They also have an eye on life after the war — they want to make sure that should Putin or any other leader even think about more military attacks in coming years they will have learnt their lesson from what happens over the next 12 months.
Which brings us to the counter-offensive. Put bluntly, it's not going as well as either Ukraine or its NATO allies hoped.
Just as expectations about a counteroffensive built up over six months, so did Russia's planning for how to counter one.
Satellite photos now show hundreds of kilometres of frontline, among the most fortified territory in the world. Russia has built an elaborate system of obvious hidden trenches and landmines.
This means that a counterattack by land is virtually impossible. Ukraine would lose too many of its own soldiers with little or no territorial gain.
Even using all the state-of-the-art tanks that it has been given — such as Leopard and Challenger tanks — it would not be able to make much progress. Russia's air superiority would take out many of these tanks.
Which is why Ukraine is now banking everything on an air offensive, but as it currently stands Ukraine is heavily out-matched by Russia in the air.
This is the reason that Zelenskyy has made F-16 fighter jets his number one priority as he has travelled to international capitals lobbying for resources.
When the US sells these jets they require that the buyer uses them only for their own defence, then cannot export them any further without authorisation.
For much of the past year, Washington has refused to budge from this position, which has meant that Ukraine has not been able to access them from other NATO countries. The US has finally relented on this, but the fact it has taken the US so long means that Ukraine is not as prepared as it should have been for a counteroffensive.
The US's reluctance has been underpinned by concern that delivery of these jets to Kyiv could lead to a serious escalation of the war — that it would only take one incident of a US-made F-16 hitting a site inside Russia for Putin to escalate.
Washington is always mindful of the fact that Putin controls those 5,977 nuclear warheads — more than the US.
To make the best use of the delay in getting F-16s or other jets (Ukraine would very much like Australia's F/A-18 Hornets fighter jets, which have been decommissioned), Ukraine has ensured that it now has scores of pilots trained to fly F-16s and other jets.
In the coming months, F-16s will be delivered to Ukraine, but the delay has meant Russia continues to have aerial superiority.
Inside Russia, private armies are in
One thing that seems certain is that once these F-16s arrive the war will enter a new period of escalation. That is when the real counteroffensive may begin.
On the Russian side, if Putin can survive Prigozhin and all the oligarchs and generals who would like to see him fall, he will be watching the "Washington election clock" hoping to see it run down.
Since the Russian invasion in February last year, many of the oligarchs have been quietly building private armies in the event that Russia descends into civil war. When they saw the Wagner fighters recently preparing to make their way to Moscow they undoubtedly would have thought this had been a good investment.
Loading...In the coming months, various oligarchs are likely to be assessing the strength of the "armies" they can muster if they go into alliances with other oligarchs. In such a febrile environment, Prigozhin is a major player at the table — he has an estimated 25,000 fighters but more important than their numerical size is the fact they are battle-hardened.
In my visits to Ukraine, it was clear from talking to Ukrainian soldiers that they have a fear and even grudging respect for the fighting ability of Wagner troops. They pointed out it was important to distinguish between Wagner fighters. Some are recruits from Russian jails — who they termed the "prisoners" — and would often charge onto a battlefield pumped up on amphetamines and other drugs to negate the fear of running towards Ukrainian trenches.
But the other Wagner fighters — the "professionals" — were the ones they feared the most. Many of these mercenaries had survived the nastiest battlefields of Syria. These were the shock troops who could often prove elusive on the battlefield.
Success in the battle for Bakhmut is now on the top of the CV of the Wagner organisation.
In any negotiation over private armies, these professional Wagner fighters are Prigozhin's most valuable bargaining chip. He can get a lot in return, either from Putin or from various oligarchs (he is, of course, a billionaire and an oligarch himself.)
While his whereabouts is not even clear, one thing is certain: in the coming months, Prigozhin is a major player in the future of Russia and, therefore, the war in Ukraine.
LoadingIn Ukraine, the priorities are set
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy feels the weight of 44 million Ukrainians on his shoulders.
While Russian politics flirts with chaos, for the Ukrainian leader the arrival of the F-16s will add to a strong arsenal of weapons, particularly the long-range missiles from the UK.
These are important as they will allow Ukraine to reach over Russia's almost-impenetrable wall of trenches, particularly into Crimea which remains a top priority for Ukraine to try to recapture.
Demonstrable strength by Ukraine on the battlefield will also improve Ukraine's position at the negotiating table.
And then watch China try to take control of the situation. Xi Jinping has taken out insurance with his envoy Li Hui.
If Ukraine looks strong and Russia is teetering under the weight of a retreating Russian army and internal chaos, it is likely Xi will try to cash in his chips by brokering a deal.
The result is that China would be more powerful than ever.