With one year to go until the 2024 US presidential election, three new polls show President Joe Biden has a tough road ahead as he attempts to secure another four years in the White House.
Mr Biden is trailing Republican frontrunner and former president Donald Trump in five of the six most important battleground states, according to one of the polls — but the recent surveys also found both men are quite disliked.
A poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College shows Americans have doubts about Mr Biden's age — he turns 81 this November, while Mr Trump turned 77 in June — and are dissatisfied with the president's handling of the US economy.
But the New York Times says its poll also shows Democrats still have a potential pathway to victory in 2024.
Let's unpack what the latest polls and catch you up on the dates to keep an eye on during the race to the White House.
Trump leads Biden in most swing states
Mr Trump leads in swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to the New York Times and Siena College poll.
Mr Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, the poll shows, but Mr Trump leads by an average of 48 to 44 per cent in five of the six key swing states.
Mr Biden defeated Mr Trump in all of those six states in the 2020 election.
Among registered voters, Mr Trump tops Mr Biden in Arizona by 5 points, Georgia by 7 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 11 points and Pennsylvania by 4 points.
Mr Biden leads Mr Trump by 3 points in Wisconsin, which he won by a narrow 0.63 per cent margin over Mr Trump in 2020.
In a national head-to-head match-up, a CBSNews/YouGov poll showed Mr Biden was 3 points behind Mr Trump, at 48 per cent and 51 per cent.
What do swing state voters think about Joe Biden?
Across the six battleground states mentioned above, the New York Times/Siena College poll shows that 59 per cent of voters disapprove of the job Mr Biden has done as US president.
The poll says 71 per cent of voters in those six states believe Mr Biden is too old, while 62 per cent say he lacks the mental sharpness to be an effective president.
Dr Don Levy from the Siena College Research Institute said Mr Biden was viewed unfavourably by most voters.
"Biden is viewed unfavourably by 57 per cent of voters, virtually the same in each of the six states," he said.
"While 83 per cent of Democrats have a favourable view of Biden, 92 per cent of Republicans view him unfavourably, as do 60 per cent of independents."
The New York Times/Siena College poll also showed that voters under the age of 30 favoured Mr Biden by only a single percentage point, and his lead among Hispanic voters was also down to single digits.
Black voters, who are seen as a key demographic for Mr Biden, now show 22 per cent support for Mr Trump in the six swing states — a level the New York Times said was unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
In the CBS News/YouGov poll, 73 per cent of US adults felt things were going "somewhat badly" or "very badly" for the country at the moment.
Respondents in all of the three new polls, which were conducted in late October and early November, highlighted fears over the US economy.
What do swing state voters think about Donald Trump?
Dr Levy said Mr Trump's negative favourability rating was comparable to Mr Biden's, as he was viewed unfavourably by at least 53 per cent of voters in each of the six swing states.
"Eight in 10 Republicans view Trump favourably, but he's viewed unfavourably by 63 per cent of independents and 89 per cent of Democrats," he said.
A poll from American television network ABC and market research company Ipsos found about 60 per cent of voters had an unfavourable view of Trump, and about 50 per cent of Biden.
Mr Trump's age doesn't appear to be as much of an issue with voters, compared with Mr Biden's.
According to the New York Times/Siena College poll, only 38 per cent of voters in the six swing states think Mr Trump is too old to be an effective president, and 54 per cent — including 91 per cent of Republicans and 53 per cent of Independents — say he has the necessary mental sharpness to be president.
Dr Levy said the poll also showed that a majority of voters in the six battleground states believed they had been helped by Mr Trump's policies, while a majority said they had been hurt by Mr Biden's.
What if a different Democrat ran against Trump?
The New York Times/Siena College poll suggests Democrats would be leading in all six battleground states.
"If the 2024 match-up featured a Democrat other than Biden running against Trump, the 'generic' Democrat would be ahead by 7 to 12 points in five of the states, and ahead by 3 points in Nevada," Dr Levy said.
Have the Trump and Biden campaigns reacted to the polls?
They sure have.
Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for Mr Biden's campaign, told the Reuters news agency that it would win in 2024 by "putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll".
"Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don't take our word for it: Gallup predicted an 8 point loss for president Obama only for him to win handedly a year later," he said, referring to Democrat Barack Obama's 2012 victory over Republican Mitt Romney.
Mr Munoz said Mr Biden's campaign was "hard at work reaching and mobilising our diverse, winning coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular agenda and MAGA (Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan) Republicans' unpopular extremism".
Mr Trump shared some of the polling numbers on his Truth Social platform, while his campaign said in a statement:
"The real bottom line? One year from today, the American people will fire Crooked Joe Biden and hire president Donald J. Trump to Make America Great Again."
Biden faces a 'big problem'
The New York Times' chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, says Mr Biden faces a "very real and very serious" challenge, but the race to the White House could shift if he's able to re-energise voters in swing states.
"Just because the poll has a representative sample doesn't mean the results will be 'predictive' of the next election. Far from it," he writes.
"There are plenty of reasons to think the race could change considerably. The startling results make it even easier to imagine how the race might shift, as Mr Trump's strength depends on voters who might be hard for him to retain once the campaign gets underway.
"What it does mean is that these results should be taken seriously. It means Mr Biden has a big problem that's severe enough to cost him the presidency if his campaign can't address it over the next year."
Key dates ahead of the 2024 US election
- January 15: Iowa caucus
Republicans in Iowa hold their nominating contests, known as caucuses, the first of this election cycle.
- January 23: First Republican presidential primary election (tentative)
Tentative date of the first Republican presidential primary election, to be held in New Hampshire. Primaries are run by state and local governments, and participants vote for their preferred candidate in a secret ballot.
- March 5: Super Tuesday
This is the biggest single day of primaries and often helps whittle down the field of candidates. Both parties hold them in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia. Democrats in Utah will also vote in their primary while Republicans hold their caucuses in the state. Republicans in Alaska vote in their primary.
- July 15-18: Republican National Convention
Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the party formally chooses its candidate.
- August 19-22: Democratic National Convention
Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where the party formally chooses its candidate.
- November 5: Election Day
It could take days for the election result to be known, especially if it is close and mail-in ballots are a factor.
ABC/wires